Limitations of delimitation exercise

The delimitation or redrawing of boundaries of Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies in Assam is a statutory exercise long overdue. Equitable distribution of resources requires rationalization of population in Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies. In Assam, the delimitation exercise is also seen as an opportunity to address the problem of demographic changes on account of illegal migration. As the total number of seats in the state assemblies or in both the Houses of Parliament will remain frozen till the first Census to be taken after 2026, the current delimitation exercise initiated by the Election Commission is not going to alter the number of Assembly or Parliamentary constituencies in Assam. As 2001 Census population is to be considered for carrying out the delimitation exercise, the redrawn constituencies cannot be expected to reflect the actual population pattern in the state given the increase in population and demographic changes due to inter-state and intra-state migration of people over the past two decades. The state had a total population of 2.66 crore during 2001 Census which increased to 3.12 crore in 2011 Census. The 2021 decadal Census exercise is yet to resume after it was postponed due to COVID-19 pandemic until further orders. Even though there is no pandemic restriction in force now there is no indication if field activities of 2021 Census are going to start soon. The redrawn boundaries of constituencies will be temporary in nature and will further undergo changes as the delimitation exercise is to be taken up after 2026. Therefore, any inference of current delimitation exercise of permanently protecting the political supremacy of indigenous communities without deletion of names of illegal Bangladeshi migrants from electoral rolls and without constitutional reservation of constituencies is only an illusion. At best readjustment of constituency boundaries could impact the electoral prospects for parties and candidates in 2024 Lok Sabha and 2026 Assembly polls if the delimitation exercise can be completed prior to these elections. When the exercise was initiated in 2007, an all-party delegation of the Assam Assembly had urged the Central Government to exclude Assam from the delimitation exercise till completion of the exercise of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in the state. The All Assam Students' Union also demanded in 2007 that the delimitation exercise be done after the publication of the final NRC and threatened to launch a massive agitation if delimitation is pushed without publication of the updated NRC. The AASU, however, has now welcomed the delimitation exercise even though the final updated NRC is yet to be published and alleged that draft updated list contains names of illegal Bangladeshi migrants and demanded re-verification. If the NRC can be delinked from delimitation exercise now, then one fails to understand the logic behind opposition to the delimitation in 2007 by linking it to the NRC exercise. Delaying the process of equating population in constituencies through delimitation means status quo in disproportionate allocation of funds for various development schemes meant for different Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies. This also partly explains constituency-wise disparity in development, which in turn, affects the overall development indices for the entire state and therefore readjusting the constituency boundaries is an important exercise for the state which needs to be carried out at the earliest. Another objective of the delimitation exercise is to limit the boundaries of Assembly constituencies co-terminus with district boundaries to avoid administrative overlap of districts in a constituency. Readjusted boundaries are expected to facilitate administrative convenience and improve constituency-wise development works. Reservation of seats for Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes is to be done in accordance with the constitutional provisions and those constituencies in which population of ST and SC is the largest are to be reserved. Unsettled issue of expanding the ST list through inclusion of six communities of the state which have been demanding ST status will make determining the actual number of reserved seats difficult. The movement for ST status is likely to gain a fresh momentum during the delimitation exercise, and this may create an uncertainty if the issue is going to be settled before completion of the exercise or before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This issue of representation of smaller ethnic nationalities in the State Assembly will remain unsettled till the number of seats increases which can be possible only when a full-fledged delimitation exercise is carried out after 2026. This also gives rise to the possibility that even if ST list is expanded in the state, its reflection in terms of increased ST population is not going to be reflected in 2026 Assembly polls. The proposed delimitation exercise being limited to mere readjusting the constituency boundaries will have limitations in addressing the issue of constitutional safeguard to indigenous communities without settlement of issues of citizenship, expansion of ST list, publication of the final list of updated and error-free NRC and making electoral rolls free from names of illegal Bangladeshi migrants.